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U.S. early vote tops 46 million, passing 2022 midterm mark

University of Florida Election Lab data, reported Friday by States Newsroom, show more than 46 million Americans had already voted, above 45.9 million in 2022.

What's new
  1. Our desk updated its story
  2. Alaska Beacon, Alabama Reflector and 12 more are now reporting this
  3. Our desk updated its story
  4. Still developing

More than 46 million Americans had cast ballots before Election Day as of Friday, exceeding the 45.9 million who voted early in the 2022 midterms, according to the University of Florida Election Lab as reported by Iowa Capital Dispatch, a States Newsroom outlet1.

Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 32. The early-vote total is a count of ballots already returned, not a forecast of the final national turnout1.

Among early voters counted through Friday, 43.9% were registered as Democrats, 31.3% as Republicans and 24.8% had no party affiliation, the lab's figures showed1.

Michael McDonald, the University of Florida political scientist who leads the Election Lab, said this week that incoming early-vote data pointed toward overall turnout similar to 20181. It remains unclear whether 2026 will exceed that year's 53% midterm turnout, the highest rate since 19141.

Ariana Figueroa's States Newsroom dispatch also cited the Cook Political Report's Oct. 30 House ratings, which moved 12 races toward Democrats and listed 18 House contests as toss-ups1. Cook listed seven Senate races as toss-ups, in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas1.

The same report said Republicans are seeking to keep majorities in both chambers and that Democrats are favored in many public forecasts to win the House, a pattern often seen in midterms1. Those forecasts are not results1.

Separately, Atlanta News First reported that Georgia's secretary of state's office said Thursday that statewide early in-person voting for a midterm had broken the 2022 record, with almost 2.3 million early votes by the end of Thursday2. Friday was the last day of in-person early voting in Georgia2.

Georgia voters this cycle are choosing a U.S. senator, with Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff facing Republican Rep. Mike Collins, and a governor, with Republican Rick Jackson facing Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, the Atlanta station reported2.

What remains unknown is how many additional ballots will be cast on Election Day and whether the final 2026 turnout will match or exceed 20181. Early-vote party registration is not the same as how those ballots will be counted by candidate1.

Sources

  1. Iowa Capital DispatchEarly voting sets midterms record, breaking 2022 mark
  2. Atlanta News FirstRecord-breaking turnout as Georgia enters final day of early voting in high-stakes midterms

How it’s being reported

2 sources

First reported by Iowa Capital DispatchIowa Capital Dispatch

Where they agree

  • Early voting was running above the comparable 2022 pace in the jurisdictions each outlet covered

Side by side

Each outlet's article broken down by our newsroom, in our own words. To read what they wrote, use the button under each one.

Iowa Capital DispatchIowa Capital Dispatch

Early voting sets midterms record, breaking 2022 mark

National early-vote total versus 2022, party registration shares, and Cook ratings

States Newsroom national report by Ariana Figueroa: more than 46 million early ballots as of Friday, above 45.9 million in 2022, per UF Election Lab.

Leaves out State-level Georgia turnout and closing-week campaign events

National early-vote total versus 2022, party registration shares, and Cook ratings

What it reports

  • Among those early voters, 43.9% were registered Democrats, 31.3% Republicans and 24.8% unaffiliated
  • UF's Michael McDonald said overall turnout is shaping up to match 2018
  • It is unclear whether 2026 will exceed 2018's 53% midterm turnout, the highest since 1914
  • Cook Political Report moved 12 House races toward Democrats on Oct. 30, listed 18 House toss-ups and seven Senate toss-ups in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas

Leaves out State-level Georgia turnout and closing-week campaign events

Atlanta News FirstAtlanta News First

Record-breaking turnout as Georgia enters final day of early voting in high-stakes midterms

Georgia early-vote record, Senate and governor races, and closing-week voting logistics

Georgia's secretary of state said midterm early in-person voting had broken the 2022 record, with almost 2.3 million early votes by Thursday as Friday was the last day of advance voting.

Leaves out The national 46 million early-vote figure and UF Election Lab party shares

Georgia early-vote record, Senate and governor races, and closing-week voting logistics

What it reports

  • Georgia early in-person midterm voting broke the 2022 record, the secretary of state's office said Thursday
  • The U.S. Senate race pits Sen. Jon Ossoff against Rep. Mike Collins
  • The governor's race is between Republican Rick Jackson and Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms

Leaves out The national 46 million early-vote figure and UF Election Lab party shares