Fewer than 5% of U.S. House races are rated truly competitive heading into November's midterms, according to the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter as of Oct. 22, in a States Newsroom report carried by multiple state outlets¹.

Cook rated 414 of 435 districts as at least leaning Democratic or Republican¹. The report counted 21 toss-up seats, 12 leaning Democratic, 13 leaning Republican, and about 89% likely or solid for one party¹.

Cook's share of toss-up or lean races this cycle was 11%, among the lower figures in the last three decades in the table States Newsroom published from those ratings. Comparable shares included 10% in 2024, 15% in 2022, 9% in 2016 and 2014, 23% in 2010 and 27% in 1996.

Emory University political scientist Zachary Peskowitz told the outlet that for many candidates the primary is the election that matters, creating different incentives than a competitive general¹. He said uncompetitive generals can produce more ideological positions and a more confrontational style aimed at activating partisans rather than the middle. He also pointed to gerrymandering and voters' focus on party over individual candidates.

University of Texas professor Sean M. Theriault said few swing districts help produce narrow House majorities, letting a small group of members block the rest of their party until they get what they want. He said that dynamic has often involved the far right among Republicans and, in some past Democratic majorities, more moderate members. He said safe seats also make general-election accountability harder, especially where only party members vote in primaries.

University of Michigan lecturer Jonathan Hanson said most House seats are not competitive in November and that guaranteed outcomes can lower turnout. He said members whose fate is disconnected from the political middle tend to stick to the party line, making compromise harder.

Kyle Kondik of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia said that organization will move remaining toss-ups toward one party before Election Day. He said Democrats could match 2018, when Republicans went from 241 seats to 199, because he viewed the environment as difficult for Republicans. The House currently has 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats and one independent, with two vacancies, the report said.

Kondik said lower midterm turnout is mainly because the president is not on the ballot, with presidential years often 15 points higher or more, though intense local races can lift turnout some.

Sources

1. Arizona MirrorMore than 95% of US House races aren’t competitive. It pushes lawmakers toward ideological edges.Oct 23, 11:07 AM

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