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S&P revises Meta outlook to negative on AI spending and cash flow

S&P Global Ratings on Friday changed Meta Platforms' outlook to negative from stable, citing uncertainty over capital spending and free cash flow, CNA (Reuters) and CNBC reported.

Wire reporting: (Reuters, via CNA)

S&P Global Ratings on Friday revised its outlook on Meta Platforms to negative from stable, citing uncertainty around the company's capital spending and free cash flow, Channel News Asia reported, carrying Reuters1,3.

CNBC said the credit rating agency pointed to elevated capital expenditures and negative free cash flow after Meta's third-quarter results last week2.

Meta forecast full-year capital spending of $135 billion to $145 billion and reported a free cash flow deficit of $2.12 billion in the third quarter, compared with positive free cash flow a year earlier1,2.

S&P said it was less certain Meta would curb spending as previously expected, given ambitious multi-year artificial intelligence investment plans, according to the Reuters report carried by CNA1.

The agency said Meta's ability to monetize those AI investments is more limited than peers' and it was unclear when related revenue would exceed rising costs1.

S&P now forecasts free operating cash flow deficits of $39 billion in 2026 and $71 billion in 2027, and said elevated spending could keep that measure negative beyond 2028, CNA reported1.

The ratings firm said it believes Meta's leverage could rise above 1.0 times as early as 2027, which it described as its threshold for the AA- issuer credit rating1.

CNA, citing Reuters, said Meta recently planned to sell $97.5 billion in stock to fund AI infrastructure1. CNBC said the company on Monday planned to raise $95 billion, including $35 billion in underwritten public equity offerings and $60 billion via an at-the-market program2.

Investors sent Meta shares down about 7% after last week's earnings even as the company beat on revenue, CNBC said, and the stock finished October down 15%2.

CNA said shares were little changed in extended trading Friday and were down more than 4% for the week, a fifth straight weekly loss1.

Meta did not immediately respond to a request for comment from CNBC2.

Sources

  1. (Reuters, via CNA)S&P Global revises Meta's outlook to 'negative' on AI spending, cash flow concernsAlso (Reuters, via CNA)
  2. CNBCMeta outlook revised to negative by S&P on cash flow and capex concerns

How it’s being reported

2 sources

First reported by CNACNA

Where they agree

  • S&P revised Meta's outlook to negative on Friday over capex and cash-flow uncertainty.
  • Meta guided full-year capex to $135 billion-$145 billion and posted $2.12 billion negative free cash flow in the third quarter.

Where they differ

Share-price reaction around the outlook and recent earnings

Size of Meta's planned equity raise for AI infrastructure

Side by side

Each outlet's article broken down by our newsroom, in our own words. To read what they wrote, use the button under each one.

CNBCCNBC

Meta outlook revised to negative by S&P on cash flow and capex concerns

Third-quarter free cash flow turning negative and the stock's post-earnings decline

S&P assigned Meta a negative outlook over elevated capex and negative free cash flow after last week's earnings.

Leaves out S&P's 2026-2027 FOCF deficit forecasts, leverage threshold, and reported equity raise plans

Third-quarter free cash flow turning negative and the stock's post-earnings decline

What it reports

  • S&P Global Ratings assigned Meta a negative outlook Friday over capex and cash-flow uncertainty.
  • Meta guided full-year capital spending to $135 billion to $145 billion.
  • The company reported negative free cash flow of $2.12 billion in the third quarter.
  • Shares fell about 7% after last week's earnings and finished October down 15%.
  • Meta did not immediately comment to CNBC.

Leaves out S&P's 2026-2027 FOCF deficit forecasts, leverage threshold, and reported equity raise plans