A member of NASA's Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel said Thursday that the latest estimate for flights needed to fuel a Starship-based lunar lander is about 22, Ars Technica reported¹.

Charlie Precourt, a former NASA astronaut on the panel, discussed Artemis IV risks at the group's quarterly meeting and said officials should watch the many fuelings required for the lander, putting the last estimate at around 22 flights¹.

Ars said Precourt did not name Starship but that the figure could only refer to SpaceX's vehicle, because Blue Origin's initial Blue Moon design does not use orbital refueling¹.

The tanker count has been a moving target. NASA has often declined to state a firm number; in 2023, then-Human Landing System director Lisa Watson-Morgan told Ars she had a general idea but was reluctant to say exactly what it was, later describing a range from high single digits to low double digits¹. Other officials have cited the high teens¹.

After Ars posted Precourt's estimate on X, SpaceX founder Elon Musk replied that the safety panel figure was not accurate, saying it was way too high and that the actual number would be more like 6 to 8¹.

Ars said there is still uncertainty about how much cryogenic methane and liquid oxygen will boil off in orbit and how efficient ship-to-ship transfer will be, while NASA can estimate propellant needs from Starship's current lift performance¹.

The report said that even if SpaceX reached twice-weekly Starship launches by the end of 2027, fueling a depot for a landing could still take about three months¹. Precourt praised NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman and his team for trying to remove barriers so SpaceX and Blue Origin can succeed, as NASA still works toward a human lunar landing in 2028¹.

Sources

1. Ars TechnicaLatest estimate for Starship launches required to support a Moon landing? 22.Oct 22, 5:52 PM

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