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Prediction markets tout midterm calls as Democrats take Congress
CNBC reported that Kalshi and Polymarket projected many 2026 midterm races before TV networks, as Democrats flipped the House and Senate, while critics said accuracy does not settle regulation.
- New headline Was: “Prediction markets cement their status after forecasting Democratic sweep of Congress”
- Our desk filed its story
Prediction-market platforms projected many 2026 U.S. midterm races before polls closed and, in some cases, before television networks, CNBC reported Wednesday1.
CNBC said Democrats were favored on those markets to flip both the House and Senate before the first polls closed at 6 p.m. ET Tuesday, and were seen as narrow favorites to take at least 53 Senate seats, with a 54th treated as a toss-up1.
As of the report, Democrats had won 54 Senate seats, including Iowa, which markets had at even odds, and South Carolina, where Republicans had been narrowly favored, CNBC said1. Mississippi and Alaska remained outstanding, with markets giving Democrats Scott Colom and Mary Peltola 90 percent odds, according to the account1.
Kalshi made public calls when a candidate's odds were above 99 percent and trading in the other direction "dried out," spokesperson Jack Such told CNBC1. Polymarket said on X that in 10 key races it called outcomes a median 31 minutes ahead of CNN, Fox News and the Associated Press, CNBC reported1.
"It's now routinely hours between when prediction markets call it versus the TV networks," Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan said in an X post quoted by CNBC1.
CNBC said markets that initially favored eventual losers adjusted after early counts: Annie Andrews became the Kalshi favorite in South Carolina about 30 minutes after polls closed, and Gina Hinojosa's Polymarket odds in the Texas governor's race jumped from 39 percent to 73 percent within five minutes of initial closings1.
Flip Pidot of the Coalition for Political Forecasting told CNBC that financially motivated traders now produce that faster signal1. Michelle Kendler-Kretsch, a researcher at the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, said a successful night should not halt stronger regulation and cited a Reuters/Ipsos survey finding most Americans oppose betting on elections1.
"Risks and vulnerabilities didn't change overnight just because the markets were accurate this time around," Kendler-Kretsch told CNBC1.
CNBC noted earlier misses, including Brazil's presidential race and some Democratic primaries, and quoted academics who said low-probability winners do not prove markets are broken1. Dartmouth economist Eric Zitzewitz said casual users can still misread 55-45 odds as a large lead1.
Rutgers statistician Harry Crane told CNBC this was "the first true prediction markets election," after 2024 left the platforms in a more uncertain public discussion1. CNBC disclosed a commercial relationship with Kalshi that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment1.
