Wire reporting: (AP, via ABC News)

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has issued a memo telling U.S. troops they may not use nonpublic information to place bets on prediction markets, The Associated Press reported Thursday, via ABC News, WFLA and WGN, and Ars Technica reported later the same day^1,2,3,4.

AP said it reviewed a one-page memo dated Tuesday. The wire said the order covers classified material and unclassified but nonpublic information, names platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi, and warns of administrative punishment and possible charges under the Uniform Code of Military Justice or federal law^1,2. Ars Technica, citing CBS News' publication of the document, dated the memo Oct. 20 and said it went to senior Pentagon leadership, combatant-command leaders and Defense Department field-activity directors⁴.

Ars quoted Hegseth saying enemies watch these markets and that a service member's trade on a military outcome can be exploited by hostile intelligence services⁴. The memo, as quoted by Ars, also said financial stakes can warp judgment for people with money riding on a strike date or an outcome⁴.

The AP report said the memo follows federal charges in April against Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, 38, a Special Forces soldier tied to the operation that captured then-Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Prosecutors alleged he used classified knowledge of the mission to bet more than $32,500 on Polymarket, mostly on the night of Jan. 2 before strikes on Caracas, and that he won more than $400,000, AP said^1,2. Ars described the same case as an Army soldier charged after making about $410,000 on Polymarket bets on the timing of Maduro's capture⁴.

Ars also cited an August Anti-Corruption Data Collective report that said the group found 152 suspicious wallets that placed longshot bets on military and defense markets and won a combined $8 million⁴. Ars said Kalshi and Polymarket both prohibit insider trading⁴.

A defense official told AP the Pentagon had nothing to add beyond the memo^1,2. AP also noted CBS News reported the document earlier and described other prediction-market bets around a U.S.-Iran ceasefire announcement, after which the White House warned staff^1,2. Ars repeated that White House warning, attributing it to AP, and separately noted a reported Kalshi bet by a Trump teleprompter aide⁴. WFLA's posting is the same AP copy by Konstantin Toropin; this account does not treat it as independent reporting². WGN posted the same AP headline later Thursday; the station page was not independently readable here³.

Sources

1. (AP, via ABC News)Pentagon directive bans troops from using nonpublic info to bet in prediction marketsAlso (AP, via WFLA), (AP, via WGN)Oct 23, 3:53 AM
2. Ars TechnicaHegseth warns prediction market bets warp military judgment, endanger troopsOct 23, 4:28 PM

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