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Southwest Airlines cuts 2026 profit forecast as fuel costs rise
Southwest Airlines cut its 2026 adjusted profit forecast to $2.60 to $2.85 a share on Wednesday, Oct. 21, down from the $3.25 to $4.25 it gave in July, as fuel costs climbed.
- New headline Was: “Southwest Airlines cuts 2026 profit forecast on higher fuel”
- Our desk filed its story
Primary sources: Southwest Q3 2026 earnings release (SEC filing), Southwest Q2 2026 earnings release (SEC filing)
Southwest Airlines on Wednesday, Oct. 21, lowered its full-year 2026 forecast to adjusted earnings of $2.60 to $2.85 a share, according to its third-quarter earnings release1. In July, the company had guided to $3.25 to $4.25 a share, a range that itself replaced an earlier forecast of at least $42.
Fuel drove the squeeze. Southwest said it paid $3.92 a gallon in the third quarter, above the $3.70 to $3.75 it had assumed, and that fuel expense rose $821 million from a year earlier, cutting adjusted earnings by $1.08 a share1. Its new outlook assumes about $4.55 a gallon in the fourth quarter1. CNBC reported that Southwest is the third major U.S. airline this month to cut its 2026 outlook over fuel costs3.
Third-quarter adjusted earnings were 66 cents a share, and operating revenue was a third-quarter record $8.42 billion, up 21.2% from a year earlier, the company said1. Net income was $270 million, or 55 cents a share1. Analysts polled by LSEG had expected 58 cents a share and $8.25 billion in revenue, CNBC reported3.
Chief Executive Bob Jordan said in the release that demand "remained strong" and that the company believes "the earnings power we've built is durable, even with significantly higher fuel costs"1.
Southwest has spent the past several years reworking its business model, CNBC reported, dropping two free checked bags per passenger and open seating, and now charging for many seat assignments and for bags, as larger rivals do3. The company said it will present multi-year financial targets at a Capital Markets Day in New York on March 2, 20271.
Sources
How it’s being reported
2 versions from 1 sourceSouthwest Airlines Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results
Gives the July full-year range and notes it replaced an earlier forecast.
Southwest's July earnings release, filed as an exhibit to its July 22 8-K, with the full-year guidance the October forecast replaced.
Leaves out Predates the October cut.
Same copy also at: Southwest Airlines (SEC filing)
Southwest Airlines cuts 2026 profit forecast on higher fuel
Leads with Southwest joining other major U.S. airlines in cutting forecasts over fuel.
Reports Southwest's lowered full-year forecast and its third-quarter results against LSEG analyst estimates, with background on its business changes.