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Citi says near-term oil risks still tilt higher despite Gulf export rebound
Citigroup said Thursday that near-term oil-price risks remain skewed to the upside even as Gulf crude export volumes recover, because shipping bottlenecks keep delivered supply costly, according to reports of the bank's note.
- OilPrice.com is now reporting this
- New headline Was: “Citi sees oil risks skewed to upside despite recovery in Gulf exports”
- Our desk filed its story
Citigroup said Thursday, Oct. 22, 2026, that near-term risks to oil prices remain skewed to the upside even though Gulf crude export volumes have recovered, reports of the bank's note said1,2.
OilPrice.com said the bank argued the rebound has been volumetric rather than logistical, with shipping inefficiencies keeping delivered crude expensive1.
That account said more than 1 million barrels a day of Gulf crude moved through ship-to-ship transfers in September, about 7.5% of regional flows, compared with virtually none before the U.S.-Iran conflict1. Gulf flows excluding Iran were described as above 81% of prewar levels, with Iranian exports at zero because of a U.S. blockade1.
OilPrice.com said Brent December futures traded around $111.70 on Thursday and that Citi offered no new price target in the Thursday note, after earlier calls that had pointed to much lower year-end prices1. Reuters carried the same Citi upside-risk headline; the full wire text was not independently readable at filing2.
No Citi research PDF was posted as a public primary document in the coverage reviewed1,2.
Sources
How it’s being reported
2 sourcesCiti’s $60 Oil Call Meets $112 Brent
The gap between Citi's earlier $60–$65 year-end call and current Brent near $112.
Summarizes Citi's Thursday assessment that Gulf export recovery has been in volumes, not shipping efficiency, with Brent around $112.
Leaves out Some freight-rate and ship-to-ship figures also in wire copy.
Citi sees oil risks skewed to upside despite recovery in Gulf exports
Gives this outlet’s account of the story.