The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Monday that households' mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher a year from now rose 1.4 percentage points to 45.3% in its October Survey of Consumer Expectations, the highest reading since April 2020².

Reuters reported the same survey under a headline focused on worry about future jobless levels¹. The New York Fed described labor-market expectations as mixed: unemployment and job-loss readings worsened while job-finding expectations improved².

The rise in unemployment-increase expectations was driven by respondents without a college degree, the bank said². The mean perceived probability of losing one's job in the next 12 months increased 0.4 percentage point to 13.9%, remaining below the 12-month trailing average of 14.3%². Expected voluntary quits fell 0.5 point to 19.4%, still above the 12-month average of 18.4%².

The mean perceived probability of finding a job if the current job were lost rose 0.4 point to 46.5%, the highest since November 2025². Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations were unchanged at 2.6%².

Median inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.9% one year ahead, 3.3% three years ahead, and 3.0% five years ahead². Median home-price growth expectations held at 3.0%². Year-ahead expected gas-price changes fell 0.6 point to 4.2%; food was unchanged at 5.5%; rent rose 0.9 point to 7.7%².

Income and spending growth expectations were broadly stable, while delinquency expectations deteriorated, the bank said². The internet-based survey of a rotating panel of about 1,300 household heads was fielded from Oct. 1 through Oct. 31².