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Model projects more childhood hepatitis B infections if the newborn shot isn't routine
A computer model of 3.6 million U.S. babies projects 83% more chronic hepatitis B infections over 20 years if birth-dose vaccination moves to shared decision-making, assuming only half of eligible babies then get vaccinated. It is a simulation, not observed cases.
- New headline Was: “Hepatitis B vaccine recommendation changes could leave millions vulnerable: Study”
- Our desk filed its story
Moving the hepatitis B vaccine away from a routine shot at birth could raise chronic childhood infections in the U.S., according to a modeling study published Oct. 19 in Annals of Internal Medicine1. Researchers at Mass General Brigham simulated one year of U.S. births, about 3.6 million babies, over 20 years1.
In the base case, the model projected 255 chronic infections with universal birth-dose vaccination, 303 if the first dose waited until 2 months, and 467 under shared clinical decision-making, increases of 19% and 83%1. The uncertainty ranges are wide: 209 to 1,032 for the shared decision-making scenario1.
The bigger numbers in the headlines refer to people left unprotected, not infected. By age 20, the model estimated about 232,000 people would lack protection under the birth dose, compared with 474,000 with deferral and 1.8 million with shared decision-making1,2.
The largest estimate depends on an assumption that only half of eligible babies would complete vaccination under shared decision-making1. The CDC removed its universal newborn recommendation in late 2025, but a federal judge stayed those advisory committee votes in March, and the CDC website now says all infants should get the vaccine, ABC News reported2.
This is a news report, not medical advice.
Sources
How it’s being reported
2 versions from 1 sourceProjected Effect of 2026 Federal Changes to the Childhood Immunization Schedule on Chronic Hepatitis B Virus Infections in the United States
Leads with projected chronic infections and the number of people left unprotected at age 20 under each strategy.
Peer-reviewed modeling study from Mass General Brigham researchers comparing three infant hepatitis B vaccination strategies over 20 years.
Leaves out Does not address the court stay that paused the federal change.
Hepatitis B vaccine recommendation changes could leave millions vulnerable: Study
Leads with the up to 1.8 million young adults who could be left unprotected.
Reports the study's findings with background on the CDC's 2025 change, the court stay and comment from a Stanford pediatrician and HHS.
Leaves out Does not give the absolute projected infection counts (255 versus 467) or the 50% coverage assumption behind the largest estimate.