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IEA says oil market returning to surplus as Gulf exports recover
- Still developing
- The Guardian is now reporting this
- Reuters is now reporting this
- Still developing
- Arab News is now reporting this
- The National is now reporting this
- First reported by CNBC
Wire reporting: (Reuters, via Arab News)
The International Energy Agency said Friday that the world oil market moved into surplus in October for the first time since the Iran war began in late February, as Gulf exports recovered faster than demand1,3.
The Paris-based agency said crude inventories rose 1.7 million barrels a day in October1. CNBC reported that the IEA put global oil supply at 105.4 million barrels a day last month, up 2.3 million barrels a day from September, and that observed stocks rose 52 million barrels3.
The IEA said supplies have surpassed demand for the first time since the conflict's outbreak and described the market as showing tentative signs of rebalancing1.
Gulf oil exports excluding Oman reached 18.4 million barrels a day in October, still 26 percent below prewar levels as attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz continued, The National reported from the IEA figures1.
That narrowed the year-on-year output decline to 2.9 million barrels a day, compared with an average loss of 8 million barrels a day from March to September, the agency said1.
Higher export rates led the IEA to raise its fourth-quarter global supply estimate by 3.3 million barrels a day1. Arab News said the agency now sees fourth-quarter supply 1.7 million barrels a day above forecast demand2.
CNBC reported that Russia's crude production rose 210,000 barrels a day to 8.73 million barrels a day in October3.
Diesel remains tighter than crude, according to the IEA, which said attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and Middle East disruptions continue to limit product exports1,3. CNBC said President Donald Trump reached an arrangement with President Vladimir Putin on Oct. 9 to supply diesel, and that the U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control issued a general license for certain Russian-origin diesel transactions through April 7, 20273.
The agency forecasts global oil demand falling 2.7 million barrels a day in 2026 to 102.3 million barrels a day, a slight decrease from its October projections, citing high prices1. The National said Gulf refined-product and LPG exports remain a drag in that outlook1.
The IEA said continued attacks on shipping remain a downside risk to the recovery1.
Sources
How it’s being reported
4 sourcesOil market to return to surplus for first time since start of Iran war, IEA says
Leads with what someone said.
The National reports the IEA's monthly oil market report, stressing a first surplus since the Iran war, Gulf export recovery still well below prewar levels, and a large upward revision to remaining…
Leaves out The Trump-Putin diesel arrangement and Russia's October crude rebound highlighted by CNBC.
IEA: Oil market returning to surplus as Gulf exports recover
Gives this outlet’s account of the story.
Russian crude production rebounds after Trump diesel deal, IEA says as oil markets return to surplus
Russia's 210,000 bpd October production increase and remaining diesel tightness despite crude surplus.
CNBC leads with Russia's October crude rebound and a U.S. license for Russian-origin diesel, while also reporting the IEA's first surplus since the Iran war and still-tight diesel markets.
Leaves out The National's figure that Gulf exports excluding Oman were 26 percent below prewar levels.
Global oil supply returns to surplus for first time since start of Iran war, says IEA
Leads with what someone said.