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U.S. midterms near with early voting up and Democrats leading polls

Al Jazeera reports more than 43 million Americans have voted early, with Democrats leading national ballot averages three days before Election Day.

Wire reporting: (AP, via Star Tribune)

Three days before U.S. Election Day on Tuesday, more than 43 million people had already voted early in person or by mail, according to an Associated Press analysis cited by Al Jazeera1.

Al Jazeera said RealClearPolling's latest national congressional ballot average put Democrats at 51.4 percent and Republicans at 43.2 percent, an 8.2-point gap1.

An Economist/YouGov survey released Thursday found 44 percent of registered voters expected Democrats to control the House after the election, compared with 31 percent who expected Republicans to keep it, Al Jazeera reported1.

Senate expectations were closer in that survey, with 39 percent expecting a Democratic majority and 36 percent a Republican one1.

Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia Center for Politics told Al Jazeera a large House generic lead suggests the House is likely to change hands, while the Senate remains more uncertain1.

Al Jazeera said the early-vote total was nearly 10 million higher than at the same point before the 2022 midterms, with large increases in some states that have competitive Senate races1.

Texas had more than 6.3 million early votes as of Wednesday, compared with 4.2 million at the same point in 2022, and Georgia had more than 2.5 million ballots by Friday morning, Al Jazeera reported1.

Early voting was also up more than 30 percent from 2022 in Maine, Michigan, North Carolina and Kansas, according to the AP figures Al Jazeera cited1.

Al Jazeera noted that early turnout does not show which candidates voters chose or what the final results will be1.

President Donald Trump campaigned in Florida on Friday and, after briefly canceling weekend trips, put Kansas and Iowa rallies back on the schedule for Sunday, Al Jazeera reported1,2.

Former President Bill Clinton campaigned for Democrats in Mississippi on Friday and urged people to vote, Al Jazeera said1,2.

Al Jazeera said Trump is expected to appear with Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson in Iowa and Sen. Roger Marshall in Kansas, while Democrat Mary Peltola is expected at a rally in Bethel, Alaska. It reported the Alaska Senate race has been complicated by a dispute over two candidates named Dan Sullivan; Trump has accused Democrats of recruiting an independent of that name, the Justice Department has taken legal action, and Peltola has denied involvement1.

Sources

  1. Al JazeeraUS midterms: 3 days to go – What latest polls say as early voting surges
  2. (AP, via Star Tribune)Trump and Clinton rally as early voting surges, Alaska probe widens, and Michigan Democrats feud

How it’s being reported

2 sources

First reported by Star Tribune

Where they agree

  • Trump campaigned Friday and restored Kansas and Iowa rallies for Sunday.
  • Clinton campaigned for Democrats in Mississippi.
  • Early voting is running ahead of the comparable point in 2022.

Side by side

Each outlet's article broken down by our newsroom, in our own words. To read what they wrote, use the button under each one.

US midterms: 3 days to go – What latest polls say as early voting surges

Generic-ballot lead for Democrats and the size of early turnout

Al Jazeera summarizes national polls, early-vote totals and last-minute campaign stops three days before the midterms.

Leaves out Detailed Michigan Democratic infighting described in the AP roundup

Generic-ballot lead for Democrats and the size of early turnout

What it reports

  • RealClearPolling's national congressional average showed Democrats ahead of Republicans by 8.2 points.
  • An AP analysis cited by Al Jazeera put early votes above 43 million, nearly 10 million more than at the same point in 2022.
  • President Trump reinstated Sunday rallies in Kansas and Iowa after briefly canceling them.
  • Former President Bill Clinton campaigned for Democrats in Mississippi on Friday.
  • Kyle Kondik said a large House generic lead does not mean the Senate will flip.

Leaves out Detailed Michigan Democratic infighting described in the AP roundup